Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Sitting on the Fence With a Sympathetic General

Maybe I just woke up.  I don’t know.  But one thing I feel obligated to do right now is play news analyst for a moment, in these momentous and tempestuous times as North Africa seems to be blowing up in everybody’s face.

I point our attention to Egypt.

From what appeared a solemn, intelligent and thought-out response to the desperation felt by the general populace regarding the possibility of the president running for election yet again, came a peaceful cry for some sort of democracy. A dignified cry for real elections for a change.  A very simple cry for change.

Now, it appears, the country has lost its temper.  Egyptians seem to have degenerated into a hissing, snapping snake.  Camels and horses, whips and chains, bricks, bits of concrete and clubs being flung on every side.  Blood.  A vile brew in Cairo’s Tahrir square, where world media has its attention directed, today.

Only yesterday we were hearing of fathers journeying from far flung, outlying provinces, to get into the square in support of their sons and daughters, saying, “Our generation could not say ‘No!’ to Mubarak, but that of our sons and my daughters has done it.  I am here in support of them and their efforts.”

Only yesterday we heard of mothers and daughters, sisters and aunts flocking to the square in everything from full burqa to high heels and chic French sweater-sets, talking about change, singing about change, laughing, peacefully, joyfully and communally in a square where no harm could come to any, for it was the will of the people.  It was OUR will.  Collectively.  For freedom.  For humanity.

Only yesterday, the Egyptian army stood around the outskirts of the square, manned the checkpoints and, generally, provided that rock of steadiness the police lost from the very beginning.  A benign power, stretching in the sun.

Then, again, yesterday, the object of Egypt’s calamitous moments, The Mubarak, made his move.

And what an absolutely predictable move it was.  He got on television to say he wouldn’t run again, but—at the same time—he wouldn’t leave, either.  Total and utter BS from a man trying to protect his and his peoples’ interests.  And believing—as all despots do as they enter the twilights of their thrall—that with one simple phone call to the secret policeman and another to the general, “might” will rein in the errant populace as it has always done.

6,000 people descend on Cairo airport to escape with their ill-gotten booty.  And, meanwhile, The Mubarak and his henchmen are forced to ramp up the lowest division of young thugs, relatives of former supporters, and the odd mercenary lying around, to get their boots stuck into the folk in Tahrir Square and play for time.  Because, surprise, surprise, for some reason, the army is staying neutral.

Right there:  That’s the key to the discovery that it’s all over for the despot.  When the army does nothing as his name is defamed far and wide and—the worst of all possible scenarios for despots—people take to the streets voluntarily, spontaneously, without fear and without payment, the end is near.

If The Mubarak had been in his prime, this would have been TianAnMen Square, already, not Tahrir Square in transition, its cobbles being pulled up by hand.  The tanks would have simply driven over the demonstrators and within a year diplomatic relations would have been reestablished with every donating western nation, and everybody would be happily back to trying to bring peace to the middle east and talking about whether or not the existence of Israel is in or out of this or that constitution.

But, today, it’s a different story.  I think the army is biding its time, and. since there’s no sign of any other branch of the Egyptian armed forces, there must be tacit agreement and the army is taking the lead on this one.. 

The army is sitting on the fence, awaiting the critical mass for change to take over.  At this moment, the generals do not want to do anything.  And judging from the pictures of the square, I wouldn’t want to do anything if I was in the army and anywhere near any of the demonstrations, either.  Talk about outnumbered.

The generals are choosing their moment.

Pretty soon they will quiet everyone down if they absolutely have to.  Then they’ll either take over for themselves or back someone like ElBaradei as a new president.

Hopefully, whoever they back and however it happens, the end result will be a more open, more free, more communicative and more democratic system for the people of Egypt, so they can live without fear in a society which is supportive of their efforts to provide for themselves and their families.  Maybe the generals are sympathetic to that kind of thinking and have finally had enough of despotism.  That would be heavenly.

And, it would be one of the great essences of democracy:  Armed forces under civilian leadership.

The next move is really in the hands of the Egyptian Armed Forces.  Whichever way you look at it.

©2010, Paul Martin. 
All rights reserved. May be used with attribution, but not for profit, without permission.

No comments:

Post a Comment